IIPM Prof. Arindam Chaudhuri on Internet Hooliganism
The weekly nationwide surveys conducted by CVoter are unique for their large scale and comprehensibility. We are tracking polls, covering a national representative sample every week and keeping a tab on the important issues of our times.
This is the only institutionalised survey practice on such a huge scale. The big question in the current cumulative round of tracking poll is if the Central government is losing its popularity?
The “State of the nation” survey, conducted by CVoter, clearly brings out people’s growing dissatisfaction with the Central government. The grudge seems to have grown over time. Yet, people have not shown pessimism with the future prospects of the nation.
The rating of the Central government has nearly nosedived from its position at the start of its second term. Even though the rating of the government hovered around six from October to December, seemingly the reports of scams have brought it down to 5.5 in January. But the personal rating of the PM, Dr Manmohan Singh, remains higher by nearly one point. UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi’s approval rating seems to move along with that of the PM. Interestingly, the rating of the leadership has remained better than that of the government.
But the fall in the ratings of the government and the PM has not given an edge to the main Opposition— the BJP— in any major way. The ratings of both NDA chief LK Advani and the Leader of Opposition in Lok Sabha, Sushma Swaraj, have remained nearly the same in the last six months. The BJP couldn’t take advantage of the much-hyped issue of the appointment of P. J. Thomas as the CVC. Initially seen as the pet issue of Sushma Swaraj, it was later ‘hijacked’ by the party elders. Does it show an internal strife in the BJP?
The issues that seem to be disturbing the Indians most are corruption and inflation. The increasing concern over corruption since October has made it the most irritating issue in the public domain. It bounced to number one position in the fourth week of January. This becomes very important trend when you know that it is for the first time after 1989 that corruption has taken the centre stage in national polity. Unemployment remained the third biggest concern from mid December to end of January.
Naxalism didn’t feature as a major issue. The whole situation has resulted in a marked rise in anger against the Central government. More people feel the need for change at the Centre (14%) than at the state level (about 7%). However, the overall need for change in the state and at the Centre is felt nearly equally at 21.3% and 22.3% respectively. But anti-incumbency is stronger against the Central establishment. It is reflected in the indications coming out of the four poll-bound states – Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Kerala and Assam. Opinion polls are more against the Congress than the non-UPA ruling parties in the states.
In TN, where UPA ally DMK is leading the government, the possibility of Jayalalitha’s AIADMK coming to power is high. In Kerala, where the Congress-led UDF is almost certain to come to power, the margin of victory is likely to go down as compared to 2009 Lok Sabha trends. In Assam, the mandate may be fractured thanks to the non-alliance of the BJP and the AGP. But the trends are hugely anti-Congress here. In Bengal, the TMC-Congress alliance is nearly certain to come to power. But it is more because of Mamata Banerjee, not the Congress.
So, here I come back with the bottom line of my analysis. The Congress is a failure, but the BJP has proved to be a bigger failure! People don’t seem to be strongly favouring the BJP as an alternative despite the sliding confidence in the ruling Congress. Whereas towards the end of June last year nearly 24% felt that the Congress was capable of handling the issues of corruption, only 19.3% thought so towards January end. The net increase in the percentage of people favouring the BJP was only two per cent.
The worsening perception of governance, nevertheless, has not resulted in a pessimistic outlook of the economy. More than 65% people believe that India is moving forward. Most feel that they are also experiencing growth. Only around 25% believe that the country is in a poor state. More than 50% respondents felt that their standard of living has gone up in the last six months. However, it came down from the level of nearly 55% in the second week of January. More than 23% felt that their standard of living has gone down. Nearly 50% of respondents believed that their standard of living would go up in the next one year. Only around 14% believed that their living standard would go down.
Finally, I can sense that India’s optimism index has become independent of the political index. Is it something to cheer about? I haven’t made up my mind on that.
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri and Arindam chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist).
For More IIPM Info, Visit below mentioned IIPM articles.
Arindam Chaudhuri: We need Hazare's leadership
Professor Arindam Chaudhuri - A Man For The Society....
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IIPM: Indian Institute of Planning and Management
IIPM in sync with the best of the business world.....
IIPM BBA MBA Institute: Student Notice Board
IIPM Prof Rajita Chaudhuri's Snaps
Indian universities and higher education institutes seem to be caught in a time warp teaching things
The weekly nationwide surveys conducted by CVoter are unique for their large scale and comprehensibility. We are tracking polls, covering a national representative sample every week and keeping a tab on the important issues of our times.
This is the only institutionalised survey practice on such a huge scale. The big question in the current cumulative round of tracking poll is if the Central government is losing its popularity?
The “State of the nation” survey, conducted by CVoter, clearly brings out people’s growing dissatisfaction with the Central government. The grudge seems to have grown over time. Yet, people have not shown pessimism with the future prospects of the nation.
The rating of the Central government has nearly nosedived from its position at the start of its second term. Even though the rating of the government hovered around six from October to December, seemingly the reports of scams have brought it down to 5.5 in January. But the personal rating of the PM, Dr Manmohan Singh, remains higher by nearly one point. UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi’s approval rating seems to move along with that of the PM. Interestingly, the rating of the leadership has remained better than that of the government.
But the fall in the ratings of the government and the PM has not given an edge to the main Opposition— the BJP— in any major way. The ratings of both NDA chief LK Advani and the Leader of Opposition in Lok Sabha, Sushma Swaraj, have remained nearly the same in the last six months. The BJP couldn’t take advantage of the much-hyped issue of the appointment of P. J. Thomas as the CVC. Initially seen as the pet issue of Sushma Swaraj, it was later ‘hijacked’ by the party elders. Does it show an internal strife in the BJP?
The issues that seem to be disturbing the Indians most are corruption and inflation. The increasing concern over corruption since October has made it the most irritating issue in the public domain. It bounced to number one position in the fourth week of January. This becomes very important trend when you know that it is for the first time after 1989 that corruption has taken the centre stage in national polity. Unemployment remained the third biggest concern from mid December to end of January.
Naxalism didn’t feature as a major issue. The whole situation has resulted in a marked rise in anger against the Central government. More people feel the need for change at the Centre (14%) than at the state level (about 7%). However, the overall need for change in the state and at the Centre is felt nearly equally at 21.3% and 22.3% respectively. But anti-incumbency is stronger against the Central establishment. It is reflected in the indications coming out of the four poll-bound states – Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Kerala and Assam. Opinion polls are more against the Congress than the non-UPA ruling parties in the states.
In TN, where UPA ally DMK is leading the government, the possibility of Jayalalitha’s AIADMK coming to power is high. In Kerala, where the Congress-led UDF is almost certain to come to power, the margin of victory is likely to go down as compared to 2009 Lok Sabha trends. In Assam, the mandate may be fractured thanks to the non-alliance of the BJP and the AGP. But the trends are hugely anti-Congress here. In Bengal, the TMC-Congress alliance is nearly certain to come to power. But it is more because of Mamata Banerjee, not the Congress.
So, here I come back with the bottom line of my analysis. The Congress is a failure, but the BJP has proved to be a bigger failure! People don’t seem to be strongly favouring the BJP as an alternative despite the sliding confidence in the ruling Congress. Whereas towards the end of June last year nearly 24% felt that the Congress was capable of handling the issues of corruption, only 19.3% thought so towards January end. The net increase in the percentage of people favouring the BJP was only two per cent.
The worsening perception of governance, nevertheless, has not resulted in a pessimistic outlook of the economy. More than 65% people believe that India is moving forward. Most feel that they are also experiencing growth. Only around 25% believe that the country is in a poor state. More than 50% respondents felt that their standard of living has gone up in the last six months. However, it came down from the level of nearly 55% in the second week of January. More than 23% felt that their standard of living has gone down. Nearly 50% of respondents believed that their standard of living would go up in the next one year. Only around 14% believed that their living standard would go down.
Finally, I can sense that India’s optimism index has become independent of the political index. Is it something to cheer about? I haven’t made up my mind on that.
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri and Arindam chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist).
For More IIPM Info, Visit below mentioned IIPM articles.
Arindam Chaudhuri: We need Hazare's leadership
Professor Arindam Chaudhuri - A Man For The Society....
GIDF Club of IIPM Lucknow Organizes Blood Donation Camp
IIPM: Indian Institute of Planning and Management
IIPM in sync with the best of the business world.....
IIPM BBA MBA Institute: Student Notice Board
IIPM Prof Rajita Chaudhuri's Snaps
Indian universities and higher education institutes seem to be caught in a time warp teaching things
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